Thursday, March 30, 2006

Stoic Ice Queen?

I have come to realise through many recent events that my blog has perhaps become too much of a personal journal, which wasn't really my intention when I started a blog. There are far more interesting things to discuss than my life, believe me. I'd much rather think about science and politics than personal drama.... so here goes.

I found an article the other day that absolutely blew my mind. The article discussed the concept of a link between the black plague and the Little Ice Age.
http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/sci/tech/4755328.stm
The Little Ice Age has long been a subject of interest to me, and I think about it surprisingly often for one reason or another. The idea of a link to the plague got me very excited.

Consider the dramatic rate of climate change in our present environment.
The Canadian government predicts that average temperature will increase by 1.4 to 5.8 degrees Celsius by the end of the century. That' a pretty big deal. With the explosion in factory production since the industrial revolution, carbon dioxide levels have increased by 31% since 1895.

So let's do a little math, shall we? That's 205 years from the industrial revolution to the end of this century. 205 years to increase CO2 levels by over 31% and the temperature by 5.8 degrees.

Are we good so far?

Now consider this. The Bubonic plague killed 1/3 of Europe's population in a span of a few years, leaving previously cultivated land to grow wild and creating a dramatic drop in CO2 levels. So let's say that 33.3% of previously cultivated land in Europe has now been subject to reforestation in a span of a few decades.

Where we see drastic global warming as a result of a 31% increase in CO2 levels in 205 years, it seems obvious that a 33% decrease in CO2 in a matter of even 100 years would result in a significant episode of global cooling.

This absolutely BLOWS my MIND! Isn't this an astounding concept?

Gillian

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